ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION AND CARBON EMISSION: INTERCONNECTED LINKS WITH ECONOMIC GROWTH IN POST-SOVIET
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20367343Keywords:
CO₂ emissions, GDP per capita, carbon intensity, energy consumption, economic growth, transition economies, PMG-ARDL, Environmental Kuznets CurveAbstract
This scientific research examined the relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions in eight
economies over the period from 2003 to 2024. The variables consist of GDP per capita, energy consumption, and carbon
intensity. The study selected and utilized the Pooled Mean Group Autoregressive Distributed Lag (PMG-ARDL) model,
which helped to estimate the relationship in the common, long-run model while heterogeneously accounting for short-run
variations across countries. In terms of results, the calculated GDP elasticity per capita revealed an interconnected,
complex, and close relationship between the increase in benefits and income and the higher level of emissions (β = 0.6988,
p < 0.001). Carbon intensity, the strongest and most influential determinant, revealed the role of production efficiency and
economic structure (β = 1.0001, p < 0.001). Furthermore, because emissions do not decrease as population income or
profit levels increased, the empirical results did not support the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis. The digits and
units in the dynamic analysis section show that the error correction term (–1.0342, p < 0.001) relatively faster adjustment
compared to long-run growth, although significant heterogeneity across countries is observed. Overall, the results imply
that achieving sustainable development in such an economy requires not only relying on economic growth but also
improving energy efficiency, technological modernization, and structural transformation.
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