RENEWABLE ENERGY AND STRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATION OF UZBEKISTAN’S ECONOMY UNDER THE GREEN ECONOMY

Abstract

This article examines the specific features of developing Uzbekistan’s national energy sector
within the framework of green economy principles, with particular attention to the structural transformation
driven by accelerated renewable energy deployment. Uzbekistan has revised its 2030 renewable capacity target
upward from an initial 12 GW of solar and wind to a more ambitious 27 GW of total renewable capacity including
hydropower, aiming to raise the share of renewables in electricity generation from roughly 23 percent in 2025 to
54 percent by 2030. Using a descriptive-analytical method grounded in official statistics, international energyagency
data, and investor disclosures, the study documents the trajectory of installed capacity, the electricitygeneration
share of renewables, the portfolio of major independent power producer (IPP) projects, and the
scale of investment mobilized since 2023. The results show that Uzbekistan’s energy sector is undergoing a
distinctive transition path characterized by public-private partnership (PPP) tendering, sovereign-backed power
purchase agreements, and increasingly competitive tariffs, with the 1.5 GW Samarkand solar project reaching
USD 0.0165 per kWh roughly 40 percent below marginal gas-fired generation costs. The article concludes that
the structural transformation of Uzbekistan’s energy sector is proceeding faster than the initial 2019 Green
Economy Transition Strategy anticipated, but that grid flexibility, transmission capacity, and domestic capitalmarket
depth remain binding constraints on the pace of further transformation.