MARKAZIY OSIYO UCHUN GEOSIYOSIY RISK (GPR) INDEKSINI ISHLAB CHIQISH
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22830409Abstract
Geosiyosiy xavf (GPR) rivojlanayotgan iqtisodiyotlarda moliyaviy va makroiqtisodiy barqarorlikka ta’sir etuvchi omillarni tahlil qilishda muhim ko‘rsatkichlardan biri hisoblanadi. Caldara va Iacoviello (2022) tomonidan ishlab chiqilgan global GPR indeksi asosan ingliz tilidagi xalqaro media manbalari asosida shakllantirilgan bo‘lib, Markaziy Osiyoga xos ayrim geosiyosiy xavf omillarini, jumladan, Rossiyadan pul o‘tkazmalari kanaliga bog‘liqlik, energiya-tranzit jarayonlaridagi uzilishlar va chegara bilan bog‘liq keskinliklarni to‘liq aks ettirmasligi mumkin. Ushbu maqolada Qozog‘iston, O‘zbekiston, Qirg‘iziston, Tojikiston va Turkmaniston uchun mintaqaviy, savdo hajmi bo‘yicha vaznlangan GPR indeksini ishlab chiqish metodologiyasi taqdim etiladi. Metodologiya mahalliy va rus tilidagi media manbalari hamda GDELT 2.0 korpusi asosida shakllantirilgan kengaytirilgan lug‘atga tayanuvchi matn tahlilini o‘z ichiga oladi. Indeksning ishonchliligi 2014, 2021 va 2022-yillardagi muhim tarixiy voqealar asosida baholanadi. Natijalar mintaqaviy indeks mahalliy geosiyosiy xavf omillarini global indeksga nisbatan batafsilroq aks ettirish imkoniyatiga ega ekanligini ko‘rsatadi. Bu esa undan kelgusida erta ogohlantirish tizimlarida qo‘shimcha bashoratlovchi ko‘rsatkich sifatida foydalanish imkoniyatlarini kengaytiradi.Keywords
geosiyosiy xavf indeksi, Markaziy Osiyo, matnga asoslangan tahlil, mintaqaviy proksi, erta ogohlantirish.References
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