THE COST OF FINANCE AS THE MAIN BARRIER TO HOUSING AFFORDABILITY IN UZBEKISTAN: EVIDENCE FROM A MORTGAGE PAYMENT-TO-INCOME MODEL
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22977812Abstract
The article examines what drives housing affordability in Uzbekistan using a mortgage payment-to-income (MPIR) model. The model is calibrated to the official estimate in the 2025 joint report of the Central Bank and the Mortgage Refinancing Company of Uzbekistan (62.0% against 62.5%). A Shapley decomposition shows that moving from market to target lending terms cuts the burden by 39.3 percentage points, and the lower interest rate accounts for 50.6 points of this. A smaller down payment raises the monthly burden. With the same budget, a one-time down-payment grant reaches several times more families than interest-rate compensation.Keywords
housing affordability, mortgage, interest rate, price-to-income ratio, subsidy, Shapley decomposition, UzbekistanReferences
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