YASHIRIN IQTISODIYOT RISKI, SOLIQ YO‘QOTISHLARI VA SAFARBAR ETILMAGAN HUDUDIY FISKAL ZAXIRALARNI KO‘P MANBALI MA’LUMOTLAR ASOSIDA INTEGRAL BAHOLASH MODELI
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23592580Abstract
Yashirin iqtisodiyot riski, soliq tafovuti va mahalliy budjetlarga tegishli fiskal zaxiralarni integral baholashga yo‘naltirilgan ikki konturli model taklif etilgan. Tadqiqotda monografiyada keltirilgan 14 ta hududga oid ma’lumotlar hamda muallifning T-4R modeli va raqamli to‘lovlar bo‘yicha ilmiy ishlanmalaridan foydalanilgan. Ko‘p manbali ma’lumotlarni o‘zaro muvofiqlashtirish, soliq tafovutini hisoblash hamda ma’muriy imkoniyatlarni hisobga olgan holda sof fiskal zaxiralarni aniqlashning metodologik tartibi asoslangan. Tahlil jarayonida CRITIC-S, Spearman korrelyatsiyasi, bootstrap va shartli portfel hisob-kitoblari usullari qo‘llanilgan. Risk va fiskal ekspozitsiya reytinglari o‘rtasidagi korrelyatsiya koeffitsiyenti 0,495 ni tashkil etgan. Fiskal ekspozitsiyaning markaziy bahosi 8,06 trln so‘m miqdorida aniqlangan. Mazkur ko‘rsatkich soliq qarzdorligi summasini yoki undirilishi mumkin bo‘lgan qo‘shimcha soliq tushumlari prognozini anglatmaydi. Tadqiqot natijalari asosida fiskal ma’lumotlar sifatini nazorat qilish, hududiy mansublikni aniqlash va fiskal zaxiralarni mavjud ma’muriy resurslarga muvofiq safarbar etishni rejalashtirish bo‘yicha ilmiy-amaliy takliflar ishlab chiqilgan.Keywords
yashirin iqtisodiyot, soliq riski, soliq tafovuti, hududiy fiskal zaxira, ko‘p manbali ma’lumotlar, CRITIC-S, ma’lumotlar sifati, T-4R, hududiy mansublik, bootstrapReferences
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