JEL: G22, O16, C53 O‘ZBEKISTONDA TAKAFUL BOZORINING RIVOJLANISH ISTIQBOLLARI: DAROMAD ELASTIKLIGI VA LOGISTIK DIFFUZIYA MODELI ASOSIDA PROGNOZ
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23602146Abstract
O‘zbekistonda takaful (islomiy sug‘urta) bozorining rivojlanish istiqbollari miqdoriy usullar asosida baholangan. Sug‘urta talabining daromadga nisbatan elastikligi log-chiziqli regressiya modeli yordamida aniqlangan (β = 1,53; 95 foizlik ishonch oralig‘i [1,04; 2,01]). Takafulning sug‘urta bozoridagi ulushi dinamikasi logistik diffuziya modeli asosida tavsiflangan hamda uning bozorni kengaytirish samarasi alohida parametr sifatida baholangan. Bazaviy ssenariyga ko‘ra, maxsus tartibga solish mexanizmi 2027-yilda joriy etilgan taqdirda, 2030-yilga kelib takaful badallari hajmi 2,5 trln so‘mga yetishi va sug‘urta bozorining 7,1 foizini tashkil etishi prognoz qilingan. Bunda bozorni kengaytirish hisobiga yuzaga keladigan qo‘shimcha samara 1,5 trln so‘mga yetishi kutilmoqda. Takaful va an’anaviy sug‘urta sektorlari mavjud bo‘lgan 18 ta bozor bo‘yicha o‘tkazilgan mamlakatlararo regressiya tahlili takaful ulushining shakllanishida musulmon aholi ulushidan ko‘ra bozorning institutsional rivojlanish davomiyligi muhimroq omil ekanligini ko‘rsatgan (p = 0,024). Olingan natijalar takaful bozorini tartibga solish mexanizmlarini o‘z vaqtida shakllantirish va rivojlantirish bo‘yicha qarorlar qabul qilish uchun miqdoriy asos yaratadi.Keywords
takaful, islomiy sug‘urta, daromad elastikligi, logistik diffuziya, sug‘urta bozori prognozi, institutsional omillar, bozorni kengaytirish samarasiReferences
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