ITALIYA VA YAPONIYADA DAVLAT QARZINING UZOQ MUDDATLI BARQARORLIGI: FISKAL QOIDALAR VA QARZ BOSHQARUVI STRATEGIYALARINING QIYOSIY TAHLILI
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17952040Keywords:
davlat qarzi, fiskal barqarorlik, ricardian fiskal rejimi, non-ricardian rejim, fiscal dominance, monetary dominance, fiscal theory of the price level, primary surplus reaction function, fiskal qoidalar, qarz boshqaruvi, yevropa ittifoqi fiskal siyosati, Yaponiya markaziy banki, qarz dinamikasi, demografik bosim, fiskal konsolidatsiyaAbstract
Ushbu maqolada Italiya va Yaponiyada davlat qarzining uzoq muddatli barqarorligi, fiskal qoidalar
samaradorligi hamda qarz boshqaruvi strategiyalarining institutsional va makroiqtisodiy jihatlari qiyosiy tahlil qilinadi.
Tadqiqotda Fiscal Theory of the Price Level, debt sustainability theory, Ricardian va Non-Ricardian fiskal rejimlar,
primary surplus reaction function kabi nazariy yondashuvlar asos qilib olingan. 1861–2020-yillardagi tarixiy ma’lumotlar,
2021–2024-yillardagi zamonaviy davlat qarzi statistikasi, shuningdek Italiya va Yaponiyaning fiskal boshqaruviga oid
yetakchi ilmiy tadqiqotlar chuqur tahlil qilingan. Natijalar Italiyada fiskal intizomning nisbatan kuchli, fiskal reaksiyaning
ijobiy va qarzning pandemiyadan keyin sezilarli pasayganini ko‘rsatadi. Yaponiyada esa fiskal reaktsiyaning sustligi,
demografik qarash, past soliq bazasi va Yaponiya markaziy bankining obligatsiyalarni katta miqdorda sotib olishi sababli
fiskal dominance rejimi shakllangani aniqlangan. Qiyosiy tahlil ikki davlatda qarz barqarorligining turlicha mexanizmlar
orqali shakllanishini ko‘rsatadi: Italiyada institutsional qoidalar orqali, Yaponiyada esa markaziy bank intervensiyasi orqali.
Maqolaning xulosa qismida esa fiskal siyosatni takomillashtirish, qarzning uzoq muddatli barqarorligini ta’minlash va
fiskal-monetar muvozanatni mustahkamlash bo‘yicha muallif tomonidan amaliy tavsiyalar berilgan.
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