TASHQI DAVLAT QARZINING VALYUTA TUZILMASI VA UNING QARZ BARQARORLIGIGA TA’SIRI TAHLILI
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18036652Keywords:
tashqi qarz, YAIM, valyuta tarkibi, qarz yuki, regressiya, ekonmetrik model.Abstract
Ushbu maqola O‘zbekiston Respublikasi tashqi davlat qarzining valyuta tarkibini o‘rganishga bag‘ishlangan.
Ishning maqsadi qarz mablag‘larini qaysi valyutalarda jalb qilish maqsadga muvofiqligini va valyuta kurslarining o‘zgarishi
tashqi qarz dinamikasiga qanday ta’sir ko‘rsatishini aniqlashdan iborat. Tahlil uchun omillarning dinamik ta’siri va
endogenligini hisobga olgan holda ikki qadamli regressiya usuli (2SLS) bilan baholangan ekonometrik model qo‘llanildi.
Tadqiqot natijalari shuni ko‘rsatadiki, AQSH dollarida tashqi qarzlarni jalb qilish umumiy tashqi qarzning o‘sishiga eng katta
ta’sir ko‘rsatadi, ayrim boshqa valyutalarda (masalan, Xitoy yuani, Janubiy Koreya voni) qarz olish esa statistik jihatdan
qarz yukining sezilarli darajada oshishiga olib kelmaydi. Olingan natijalar asosida qarz barqarorligini ta’minlashning
chegaraviy yondashuvi taklif etiladi: tashqi qarzning kritik darajasi YAIMning 40 foizlik ulushi sifatida belgilandi. Bu
berilgan shartlar asosida ushbu yilda jalb qilinigi mumkin bo‘lgan yangi tashqi qarzlarning maksimal hajmi taxminan 5,2
milliard AQSH dollariga teng bo‘lishini ko‘rsatmoqda.
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