SURXONDARYO VILOYATIDA AHOLI JON BOSHIGA CHAKANA SAVDO AYLANMASI HAJMI KO‘RSATKICHLARINI ARIMA MODELI YORDAMIDA PROGNOZLASHTIRISH
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18629866Keywords:
chakana savdo aylanmasi, vaqt qatorlari, ARIMA modeli, prognozlash, statsionarlik, Dikkey–Fuller testi, iqtisodiy tahlil, Surxondaryo viloyati.Abstract
Mazkur maqolada Surxondaryo viloyatida aholi jon boshiga chakana savdo aylanmasi hajmining vaqt
bo‘yicha o‘zgarishi hamda uni prognozlash masalalari tahlil qilingan. Tadqiqotda 2010–2024-yillar ma’lumotlari asosida
vaqt qatorlari tahlili amalga oshirilib, ARIMA modeli yordamida iqtisodiy ko‘rsatkichlarning kelgusi davr uchun prognoz
qiymatlari aniqlangan. Vaqt qatorining statsionarligi kengaytirilgan Dikkey–Fuller (ADF) testi orqali tekshirildi hamda
mos ARIMA (0,2,1) modeli tanlandi. Olingan natijalar 2025–2028-yillar uchun chakana savdo aylanmasining barqaror
o‘sish tendensiyasini ko‘rsatadi. Tadqiqot natijalari hududiy savdo tizimini yanada rivojlantirish va iqtisodiy rejalashtirish
jarayonlarida muhim amaliy ahamiyat kasb etadi
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