ANALYSIS OF THE CURRENT STATE OF FOREIGN TRADE ACTIVITY IN UZBEKISTAN’S REGIONS AND FORECASTING REGIONAL FOREIGN TRADE UNDER WTO AND EAEU ACCESSION (BASED ON THE CASE OF KAZAKHSTAN).
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17441433Keywords:
Uzbekistan, regional trade, foreign trade, exports, imports, WTO accession, EAEU membership, Kazakhstan comparison, panel data, econometric modeling, trade forecasting, regional disparities, GDP elasticity, trade policy, import dependence, export diversification, SME competitiveness, logistics infrastructure, industrial modernization, trade integration.Abstract
In recent years, Uzbekistan’s foreign trade has expanded significantly: between 2018 and 2024, total trade
turnover increased from USD 33.8 billion to USD 65.9 billion, almost doubling. This growth was driven by favorable global
conditions and internal reforms promoting liberalization and competitiveness. Regionally, trade remains concentrated in
several key areas: Tashkent city accounts for 35–37% of the country’s total trade, mainly machinery and raw materials
imports; Navoiy specializes in non-ferrous metals and chemicals; the Fergana Valley focuses on textiles and agriculture;
and Samarkand and Bukhara are major producers of food and construction materials.
Kazakhstan’s experience demonstrates how simultaneous participation in the WTO and the Eurasian Economic Union
(EAEU) produced mixed outcomes—enhancing export diversification but increasing dependence on Russia’s economy.
Using regional panel data for Uzbekistan (2018–2024) and Kazakhstan (2015–2024), this study employs fixed-effects
models and ARIMA forecasts to assess regional trade prospects under WTO and EAEU scenarios. The estimates show
that in Kazakhstan, a 10% increase in regional GDP raises exports by roughly 10.5% (β₁ ≈ 1.05, p < 0.01), while trade
inertia is substantial (β₂ ≈ 0.62). For Uzbekistan, export dynamics display similar persistence. Forecasts for 2025–2029
indicate stable export growth, with WTO membership expected to raise total exports by 4–5% annually and imports by
6–7%, leading to a temporary widening of the trade deficit.
Overall, WTO accession appears strategically more beneficial for Uzbekistan in the long run, supporting export
diversification, industrial modernization, and foreign investment attraction. Meanwhile, EAEU membership offers shortterm
advantages in regional logistics but entails higher dependency risks. Thus, WTO membership should serve as
Uzbekistan’s primary integration priority, while regional alliances play a complementary role.
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