ANALYSIS OF THE CURRENT STATE OF FOREIGN TRADE ACTIVITY IN UZBEKISTAN’S REGIONS AND FORECASTING REGIONAL FOREIGN TRADE UNDER WTO AND EAEU ACCESSION (BASED ON THE CASE OF KAZAKHSTAN).
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17441433Ключевые слова:
Uzbekistan, regional trade, foreign trade, exports, imports, WTO accession, EAEU membership, Kazakhstan comparison, panel data, econometric modeling, trade forecasting, regional disparities, GDP elasticity, trade policy, import dependence, export diversification, SME competitiveness, logistics infrastructure, industrial modernization, trade integration.Аннотация
In recent years, Uzbekistan’s foreign trade has expanded significantly: between 2018 and 2024, total trade
turnover increased from USD 33.8 billion to USD 65.9 billion, almost doubling. This growth was driven by favorable global
conditions and internal reforms promoting liberalization and competitiveness. Regionally, trade remains concentrated in
several key areas: Tashkent city accounts for 35–37% of the country’s total trade, mainly machinery and raw materials
imports; Navoiy specializes in non-ferrous metals and chemicals; the Fergana Valley focuses on textiles and agriculture;
and Samarkand and Bukhara are major producers of food and construction materials.
Kazakhstan’s experience demonstrates how simultaneous participation in the WTO and the Eurasian Economic Union
(EAEU) produced mixed outcomes—enhancing export diversification but increasing dependence on Russia’s economy.
Using regional panel data for Uzbekistan (2018–2024) and Kazakhstan (2015–2024), this study employs fixed-effects
models and ARIMA forecasts to assess regional trade prospects under WTO and EAEU scenarios. The estimates show
that in Kazakhstan, a 10% increase in regional GDP raises exports by roughly 10.5% (β₁ ≈ 1.05, p < 0.01), while trade
inertia is substantial (β₂ ≈ 0.62). For Uzbekistan, export dynamics display similar persistence. Forecasts for 2025–2029
indicate stable export growth, with WTO membership expected to raise total exports by 4–5% annually and imports by
6–7%, leading to a temporary widening of the trade deficit.
Overall, WTO accession appears strategically more beneficial for Uzbekistan in the long run, supporting export
diversification, industrial modernization, and foreign investment attraction. Meanwhile, EAEU membership offers shortterm
advantages in regional logistics but entails higher dependency risks. Thus, WTO membership should serve as
Uzbekistan’s primary integration priority, while regional alliances play a complementary role.
Библиографические ссылки
1. Uzbekistan Statistical Agency. External Trade Turnover Reports (2018–2024). Available at: https://stat.uz (last
accessed: September 10, 2025).
2. World Bank. (2023). Uzbekistan Economic Update: Navigating Reforms. Available at: https://www.worldbank.org (last
accessed: September 10, 2025).
3. OECD. (2022). Trade Policy Reviews: Kazakhstan 2016–2021 – Post-WTO Membership Assessment. Available at:
https://www.oecd.org (last accessed: September 12, 2025).
4. Kadyrova, D., & Mukhamedov, A. (2023). Regional Trade Competitiveness under WTO Accession: Evidence from
Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Central Asian Economic Review, 25 (2), 55–73.
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accessed: September 12, 2025).
6. Abdurakhmonov, A. (May 2020). The Current Status of Uzbekistan’s Import/Export Trading System and Suggested
Future Development Plan. Inha University in Tashkent. DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.30002.94404.
7. Mingishov, L. (December 2020). Analysis of Regional Trade Development Trends in Central Asian Countries
(Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan). University of World Economy and Diplomacy (UWED), Tashkent.
8. World Bank, WITS Data Portal. Uzbekistan Trade Statistics. Available at: https://wits.worldbank.org (last accessed:
September 13, 2025).
9. Wikipedia. Economy of Kazakhstan. Available at: https://en.wikipedia.org (last accessed: September 13, 2025).
10. Based on 2024 data from the Statistical Agency under the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan. Available at: https://
stat.uz (last accessed: September 10, 2025).
Additional Sources
1. Abduvaliev, M. (2024). An Overview of Central Asian Trade Growth and Economic Integration. CAREC Institute.
Available at: https://www.carecinstitute.org/publications/overview-central-asia-trade-2024.
2. OECD. (2023). Trade Facilitation in Central Asia. OECD Publishing. Available at: https://www.oecd.org/central-asia/
trade-facilitation-2023.pdf.
3. Yusupov, Yu. (2025). Foreign Trade of Central Asian Countries: Trends, Barriers, and Prospects. Available at: https://
www.centralasia-trade.org/foreign-trade-report-2025.
4. World Trade Organization (WTO). Uzbekistan Profile. Available at: https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/countries_e/
uzbekistan_e.htm.
5. Asian Development Bank (ADB). Central Asia Economic Update. Available at: https://www.adb.org/countries/centralasia/
main.
6. OECD. Trade in Central Asia. Available at: https://www.oecd.org/countries/central-asia/.
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