DEVELOPMENT SCENARIOS OF UZBEKISTAN’S ACTIVE LABOR FORCE UNTIL 2030 AND THEIR ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17572496Keywords:
active labor force, labor market, forecasting, optimistic scenario, pessimistic scenario, baseline scenario, economic analysis, Uzbekistan.Abstract
In this article, the development trends and forecast indicators of the active labor force in the Republic of
Uzbekistan for the period 2024–2030 are analyzed. The study evaluates the dynamics of changes in the active labor force
based on three scenarios – optimistic, pessimistic, and baseline approaches. Using the actual indicators of 2024, the
potential scale of growth or decline in labor resources up to 2030 has been determined. The optimistic scenario suggests
a significant increase in the labor force, while the pessimistic scenario indicates only minimal growth. The baseline
forecast reflects moderate growth rates. Based on these analyses, scientific conclusions have been drawn regarding
ensuring labor market stability, increasing employment levels, and effectively planning economic policy
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