DEVELOPMENT SCENARIOS OF UZBEKISTAN’S ACTIVE LABOR FORCE UNTIL 2030 AND THEIR ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS
##plugins.pubIds.doi.readerDisplayName##:
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17572496##article.subject##:
active labor force, labor market, forecasting, optimistic scenario, pessimistic scenario, baseline scenario, economic analysis, Uzbekistan.##article.abstract##
In this article, the development trends and forecast indicators of the active labor force in the Republic of
Uzbekistan for the period 2024–2030 are analyzed. The study evaluates the dynamics of changes in the active labor force
based on three scenarios – optimistic, pessimistic, and baseline approaches. Using the actual indicators of 2024, the
potential scale of growth or decline in labor resources up to 2030 has been determined. The optimistic scenario suggests
a significant increase in the labor force, while the pessimistic scenario indicates only minimal growth. The baseline
forecast reflects moderate growth rates. Based on these analyses, scientific conclusions have been drawn regarding
ensuring labor market stability, increasing employment levels, and effectively planning economic policy
Библиографические ссылки
1. Тюленева Татьяна Ивановна, & Курашова Екатерина Анатольевна (2020). СОВРЕМЕННОЕ СОСТОЯНИЕ
ТРУДОВЫХ РЕСУРСОВ В ТРУДОСПОСОБНОМ ВОЗРАСТЕ В РОССИЙСКОЙ ФЕДЕРАЦИИ. Теоретическая и
прикладная экономика, (4), 39-49.
2. Tyuleneva, Tatyana & Kurashova, Ekaterina. (2020). Current state of labor resources of active working age in the
Russian Federation. Теоретическая и прикладная экономика. 39-49. 10.25136/2409-8647.2020.4.34013.
3. KRUPNOV, Yurii & RUBINSHTEIN, Evgeniya. (2024). Factor analysis of changes in labor force parameters. National
Interests: Priorities and Security. 20. 1099-1124. 10.24891/ni.20.6.1099.
4. Loichinger, E. (2015). Labor force projections up to 2053 for 26 EU countries, by age, sex, and highest level of
educational attainment. Demographic Research, 32, 443-486.
5. Barnichon, R., & Nekarda, C.J. (2012). The Ins and Outs of Forecasting Unemployment: Using Labor Force Flows to
Forecast the Labor Market. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2012, 131 - 83.
6. Fuchs, J., Söhnlein, D., Weber, B. et al. Stochastic Forecasting of Labor Supply and Population: An Integrated Model.
Popul Res Policy Rev 37, 33–58 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11113-017-9451-3
7. Toossi, M. (2012). Labor Force Projections to 2020: A More Slowly Growing Workforce. Monthly Labor Review, 135,
43.
8. www.stat.uz
Загрузки
##submissions.published##
##issue.issue##
##section.section##
Лицензия
Copyright (c) 2025 YASHIL IQTISODIYOT VA TARAQQIYOT

Это произведение доступно по лицензии Creative Commons «Attribution» («Атрибуция») 4.0 Всемирная.