QURILISH TASHKILOTLARI FAOLIYATINING MOLIYAVIY BARQARORLIGINI EKONOMETRIK MODELLAR ASOSIDA BAHOLASH
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18879005Keywords:
Qurilish tashkilotlari, moliyaviy barqarorlik, kvartira(uy)lar soni, trend modeli, ARIMA modeli, prognoz, Qoraqalpog‘iston.Abstract
Qoraqalpog‘iston Respublikasida kvartira(uy)lar sonini prognoz qilishda qurilish tashkilotlari faoliyatining
moliyaviy barqarorligini baholash uchun trend va ARIMA (0,1,2) modellari qo‘llanildi. Trend modeli asosida 2028-yilda
kvartira(uy)lar soni 457 888 birlikka yetishi, o‘rtacha yillik o‘sish sur’ati 2,8 % ni tashkil qilishi kutilmoqda. ARIMA modeli
bo‘yicha prognozlar 451 589 birlikni ko‘rsatib, o‘sish sur’ati 2,5 % ni tashkil qiladi. Tahlil natijalari trend modelining
barqarorligi va ishonchliligini ko‘rsatadi, ARIMA modelida esa keyingi yillarda standart xatolikning oshishi kuzatiladi.
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