QURILISH TASHKILOTLARI FAOLIYATINING MOLIYAVIY BARQARORLIGINI EKONOMETRIK MODELLAR ASOSIDA BAHOLASH
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https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18879005##article.subject##:
Qurilish tashkilotlari, moliyaviy barqarorlik, kvartira(uy)lar soni, trend modeli, ARIMA modeli, prognoz, Qoraqalpog‘iston.##article.abstract##
Qoraqalpog‘iston Respublikasida kvartira(uy)lar sonini prognoz qilishda qurilish tashkilotlari faoliyatining
moliyaviy barqarorligini baholash uchun trend va ARIMA (0,1,2) modellari qo‘llanildi. Trend modeli asosida 2028-yilda
kvartira(uy)lar soni 457 888 birlikka yetishi, o‘rtacha yillik o‘sish sur’ati 2,8 % ni tashkil qilishi kutilmoqda. ARIMA modeli
bo‘yicha prognozlar 451 589 birlikni ko‘rsatib, o‘sish sur’ati 2,5 % ni tashkil qiladi. Tahlil natijalari trend modelining
barqarorligi va ishonchliligini ko‘rsatadi, ARIMA modelida esa keyingi yillarda standart xatolikning oshishi kuzatiladi.
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