TOSHKENTDA KICHIK BIZNES KORXONALARIDA RAQAMLI TEXNOLOGIYALARDAN FOYDALANISH SAMARADORLIGI: LOGIT VA PROBIT MODELLARI ASOSIDA EMPIRIK TAHLIL
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20765153Ключевые слова:
raqamli texnologiyalar; kichik biznes; logit modeli; probit modeli; marginal effektlar; Toshkent; Stata 17Аннотация
Ushbu tadqiqot Toshkent shahridagi kichik biznes korxonalarida raqamli texnologiyalardan foydalanish
samaradorligini empirik jihatdan baholaydi. 2024-yil mart–dekabr oylarida tabaqalashtirilgan tasodifiy tanlanma usuli
orqali 846 ta kichik biznes egasidan yig‘ilgan so‘rovnoma ma’lumotlari asosida Stata 17 dasturida logit va probit modellari
qo‘llanildi. Maksimal ehtimollik (MLE) usuli bilan baholangan natijalar shuni ko‘rsatadiki, ta’lim darajasi (βlogit = 0,782; p
< 0,01), raqamli savodxonlik (βlogit = 0,651; p < 0,01), moliyaviy imkoniyat (βlogit = 0,934; p < 0,01) va internet tezligi
(βlogit = 0,423; p < 0,01) raqamli texnologiyalarni qabul qilish ehtimolligini sezilarli darajada oshiradi, yosh esa salbiy
ta’sir ko‘rsatadi (βlogit = −0,134; p < 0,05). O‘rtacha marginal effektlar (AME) tahlilida ta’lim darajasi bir pog‘ona oshganda
raqamli texnologiyalarni qabul qilish ehtimolligi 14,23 foizga ortishi aniqlandi. Logit modeli uchun McFadden R² = 0,347,
AUROC = 0,873 va to‘g‘ri klassifikatsiya ko‘rsatkichi 80,1 foizni tashkil etadi. Hosmer–Lemeshow testi (χ²(8) = 8,34; p
= 0,402) modelning ma’lumotlarga mos kelishini tasdiqlaydi. Logit va probit modellari deyarli bir xil marginal effektlarni
berdi (AIC farqi < 1), bu esa natijalarning ishonchliligini kuchaytiradi. Tadqiqot kichik biznesda raqamlashtirish siyosatini
shakllantirish uchun faktga asoslangan tavsiyalar taqdim etadi.
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