HUDUDIY SOLIQ SALOHIYATINI BAHOLASH VA BUDJET DAROMADLARINI PROGNOZLASHTIRISHNING YAXLIT MODELI: O‘ZBEKISTON AMALIYOTI ASOSIDA
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17950966Ключевые слова:
davlat budjeti, soliq salohiyati, soliq sig‘imi, soliq yig‘uvchanlik koeffitsiyenti, budjet daromadlari prognozi, hududiy YaIM, fiskal tenglashtirish, O‘zbekistonАннотация
Ushbu maqolada O‘zbekiston Respublikasida davlat budjeti daromadlarini rejalashtirish va prognozlashtirish
jarayonida soliq salohiyati (soliq potensiali)ning o‘rni va ahamiyati tizimli tahlil qilingan. Nazariy qismda soliq salohiyati,
soliq sig‘imi, soliq sa’y-harakati va soliqlarning yig‘uvchanlik koeffitsiyenti tushunchalari umumlashtiriladi hamda
ularning budjetlararo munosabatlar va fiskal tenglashtirish bilan bog‘liqligi yoritiladi. Metodologiyada soliq salohiyatini
baholashning additiv, regressiyaviy, tuzilmaviy va faktik usullari, shuningdek YAIM/YAHM asosidagi makro yondashuv
qo‘llanadi. Empirik tahlil 2015–2023-yillarda O‘zbekiston bo‘yicha soliq tushumlari, soliq salohiyati va hududiy YA(H)
M ko‘rsatkichlariga, shuningdek asosiy soliq turlari bo‘yicha yig‘uvchanlik koeffitsiyentlari dinamikasiga tayanadi va
2024–2026-yillar uchun prognoz ko‘rsatkichlari shakllantiriladi. Tadqiqot natijalari aksiz va yer qa’ridan foydalanganlik
soliqlari bo‘yicha salohiyatning yuqori darajada realizatsiya qilinayotganini, mol-mulk va yagona yer soliqlarida esa
sezilarli foydalanilmagan salohiyat mavjudligini ko‘rsatadi. Xulosa qismida soliq salohiyatini hisoblashning yagona
milliy metodologiyasini joriy etish, soliq salohiyati indeksini budjetlararo taqsimot formulalariga integratsiya qilish, soliq
yig‘uvchanligiga asoslangan KPI tizimi va “model portfeli”ga tayangan daromad prognozlash amaliyotini shakllantirish
bo‘yicha amaliy tavsiyalar ishlab chiqilgan
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