MARKAZIY OSIYODA OZIQ-OVQAT NARXLARI INFLATSIYASINING UZOQ MUDDATLI DINAMIKASI (2005–2025): O‘ZBEKISTONGA ALOHIDA E’TIBOR QARATILGAN QIYOSIY TAHLIL
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https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20637007##semicolon##
oziq-ovqat inflatsiyasi, Markaziy Osiyo, O‘zbekiston, inflatsiya o‘zgaruvchanligi, valyuta kursi ta’siri, global shoklar, qiyosiy tahlil, makroiqtisodiy barqarorlik##article.abstract##
2005–2025-yillar davomida Markaziy Osiyo mamlakatlarida oziq-ovqat narxlari
inflatsiyasining uzoq muddatli dinamikasi o‘rganilib, O‘zbekiston hamda uning qo‘shni davlatlari misolida qiyosiy
tahlil amalga oshirilgan. Tadqiqotda tavsifiy va qiyosiy tahlil usullaridan foydalanilib, Qozog‘iston, Qirg‘iziston,
Tojikiston, O‘zbekiston va Turkmanistonda oziq-ovqat inflatsiyasining tendensiyalari, o‘zgaruvchanlik
xususiyatlari hamda yirik global shoklarning ta’siri baholangan.
Natijalar mintaqada oziq-ovqat inflatsiyasining barqaror o‘sish tendensiyasi mavjudligini hamda ayniqsa
2008-yildan keyingi davrda yuqori darajadagi o‘zgaruvchanlik kuzatilganligini ko‘rsatdi. Tahlil davomida ikkita
muhim global hodisa — 2008-yilgi jahon moliyaviy inqirozi va COVID-19 pandemiyasi inflatsiya sur’atlarining
keskinlashuvi hamda narxlar dinamikasidagi tarkibiy o‘zgarishlarning asosiy omillari sifatida baholandi.
Mazkur shoklarning ta’siri mamlakatlarning importga qaramlik darajasi, qishloq xo‘jaligi salohiyati va
makroiqtisodiy siyosat mexanizmlariga qarab turlicha namoyon bo‘lgan. O‘zbekistonda 2017-yilgacha nisbatan
barqaror inflatsiya trayektoriyasi kuzatilgan bo‘lsa, valyuta kursi erkinlashtirilganidan so‘ng inflatsiya darajasi va
uning o‘zgaruvchanligi sezilarli ravishda oshgan. Bu holat valyuta kursi orqali narxlarga ta’sir qilish mexanizmi
kuchayganligini hamda mamlakatning jahon tovar bozorlaridagi narx o‘zgarishlariga nisbatan sezgirligi
ortganligini anglatadi.
Mamlakatlar kesimidagi qiyosiy tahlil Qozog‘istonda inflatsiya o‘zgaruvchanligi nisbatan past ekanligini,
Qirg‘iziston va Tojikistonda esa tashqi shoklarga yuqori sezgirlik mavjudligini ko‘rsatdi. Olingan natijalar Markaziy
Osiyoda oziq-ovqat inflatsiyasi tashqi shoklar va ichki tarkibiy omillar ta’sirida shakllanishini tasdiqlaydi. Shu
bilan birga, iqtisodiy liberallashuv va narxlar barqarorligi o‘rtasidagi muvozanatni ta’minlash, mahalliy ishlab
chiqarish tizimlarini mustahkamlash hamda makroiqtisodiy barqarorlikni kuchaytirish zarurligi asoslab berilgan.
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