O‘ZBEKISTONDA SUVGA BO‘LGAN TALABNI VAQTLI QATORLAR ORQALI TAHLIL QILISH
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https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17551296##article.subject##:
suv sarfi, ARIMA, ACF, PACF, anomaliya, suv menejmenti##article.abstract##
Global darajada suv tanqisligi kuzatilayotgan bir davrda mamlakat iqtisodiyotida aholi salomatligi va oziqovqat
xavfsizligini ta’minlovchi islohotlarni rejalashtirish uchun suvga bo‘lgan talabni prognoz qilish dolzarb masala
hisoblanadi. Ushbu maqolada O‘zbekiston Respublikasida barcha tarmoqlardagi suv sarfi hajmi ekonometrik vaqt
qatori tahlili orqali prognoz qilinadi. Eng maqbul model sifatida ARIMA(0,2,1) qabul qilindi. Natijalar shuni ko‘rsatdiki,
respublikada 2030-yilga kelib aholi suv iste’moli hajmi 0,9 foizga kamayishi, qishloq xo‘jaligi suv iste’moli 1,2 foizga,
sanoat suv iste’moli esa 4 foizga yetishi prognoz qilinmoqda.
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