COMPARATIVE MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF INFLATION IN UZBEKISTAN AND THE UNITED STATES
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https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18103799##article.subject##:
inflation dynamics; Uzbekistan; United States; consumer price index; inflation targeting; monetary policy; macroeconomic volatility.##article.abstract##
This study provides a detailed comparative analysis of inflation dynamics in Uzbekistan and the United States
over 2017–2025. It examines consumer price inflation rates, consumer price index trajectories, and inflation volatility,
while identifying key macroeconomic drivers and monetary policy frameworks in both countries. Inflation in Uzbekistan
remained at double-digit levels for most of the period, peaking at around 17.5 percent in 2018 and moderating to below
10 percent by 2024. In contrast, inflation in the United States was historically low prior to a sharp increase to about 8
percent in 2022, followed by a decline toward approximately 3 percent by 2024. The study discusses the role of structural
reforms in Uzbekistan and pandemic-era supply shocks in the United States in shaping these trends. It also contrasts
the monetary regimes, highlighting the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate with a 2 percent inflation target and the Central
Bank of Uzbekistan’s explicit 5 percent inflation target within a formal inflation-targeting framework introduced in 2020.
The findings indicate that inflation in Uzbekistan was significantly higher and more volatile than in the United States,
reflecting differences in economic structure and policy orientation. Policy implications for Uzbekistan emphasize the
importance of maintaining tight monetary policy, ensuring fiscal discipline, and continuing structural reforms to anchor
inflation expectations.
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