BUDJET TIZIMIDA JISMONIY SHAXSLARDAN UNDIRILADIGAN SOLIQ TUSHUMLARINI PROGNOZLASHTIRISHNING EKONOMETRIK YONDASHUVLARI
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20258021Keywords:
budjet tizimi, jismoniy shaxslardan olinadigan daromad solig‘i, soliq tushumlari, soliq prognozi, ekonometrik tahlil, OLS regressiya, Tax Effort Index, fiskal multiplikator, raqamlashtirish, mashinali ta’lim.Abstract
Ushbu maqolada O‘zbekiston Respublikasi budjet tizimida jismoniy shaxslardan undiriladigan soliq
tushumlarini prognoz qilishning nazariy va metodologik masalalari empirik asosda tahlil qilingan. 2020–2026-yillar
davomida jismoniy shaxslardan olinadigan daromad solig‘i (JShDS) tushumlarining dinamikasi ekonometrik metodlar,
jumladan, OLS regressiya, Pirson korrelyatsiya tahlili va vaqt qatorlari tahlili yordamida o‘rganildi. Tadqiqot natijalariga
ko‘ra, JShDS tushumlari 2020-yildagi 15,1 trln so‘mdan 2026-yilda 52,0 trln so‘mga (CAGR = 22,9%) oshgan bo‘lsa-da,
uning YaIMga nisbatan ulushi (~2,6%) OECD davlatlari o‘rtacha ko‘rsatkichidan (8,4%) sezilarli darajada pastligi aniqlandi.
Ekonometrik model yuqori ishonchlilikni namoyon etdi: R² = 0,9976, korrelyatsiya koeffitsiyenti r = 0,984 (p < 0,001).
Shuningdek, 2026-yildan kuchga kirgan PQ–247-son qarori doirasidagi YaTT uchun 1 foizlik aylanma solig‘i hamda
Navoiy va Chirchiq shaharlarida joriy etilgan majburiy deklaratsiyalashtirish tajribasi soliq prognozlari aniqligini oshirish
imkonini berishi asoslandi.
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